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ISU Predictions/Breakdowns 2025


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I would greatly appreciate hearing predictions for each class. If possible, it would be very helpful to also receive a clear breakdown of the pros and cons for the different bands. Having this kind of analysis makes the predictions more transparent and easier to follow, while also highlighting the unique strengths and challenges of some groups in an unbiased way. This approach allows for a fuller understanding of how each class is performing. If it’s too much I totally understand, I’m just super interested.

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I will give it a go and try to update weekly as results come in. No transitive property etc. Itals are for finalists. These are obviously wrong.

 

1A        

1-Eureka: The 1A standard this decade.

2-IVC: Ahead of Eureka last week but no idea how much the shows are complete relative to each other and what role score inflation played; not far from Galesburg either, perhaps two 1A finalists?

3-Macomb/ Prairie Central/ University/Hersher/Effingham/Metamora: A jumble of groups with great histories.

2A        

Morton: No need to comment

Galesburg: My bet to be in finals but work to do.

Limestone: Solid third here, in the hunt.

3A        

Marian Catholic: No need to comment

Bloomington: Consistent finalist, shorter commute 

Lemont: Pick-em between Lemont and Collinsville for final slot, better performance is in. Going off last year's prelim scores.

4A        

Romeoville: Topped VJA in week 1, quite close to Plainfield North

Batavia: Will know more this weekend

CollinsvilleTopped Edwardsville last weekend, curious to see how the show progresses, immediately follow Lemont and better performance gets in.

5A        

Prospect: Seem to be at their traditional high standard

Plainfield North: Within 2.25 of Marian last week, golden performance slot

Victor J. Andrew: 5A placements and finals selections are going to be random here.

Edwardsville: Strange result at MEMC, seems like the fundamentals of the show is there, task is putting it together. Not safely in.

Plainfield Central: Losing Lockport but adding O'Fallon and Edwardsville makes for an odd-man out, which may well be Edwardsville or Warren. Here is where i have it for now, but time will tell. Have them out because of early performance slot.

6A        

O'Fallon Township: No comment.

Normal: Within 2.5 of Morton last week

Warren Township: Back in finals last year after a 14-year gap. Could come down to a 0.1 points to be in or out. Putting them in because of performance slot.

Oswego: In the hunt

Oswego East: In the hunt

 

1-O'Fallon Township: This is really the only accomplishment in Illinois that they do not have. But they never quite get it right at ISU. I think this is the year.

2-Morton: Last Illinois band to top O'Fallon, know how to surge for finals.

3-Prospect: A blue blood of Illinois band

4-Marian Catholic: The best our state has ever produced

5-Normal: Solid start to the season, let's see how the show grows

6-Plainfield North: Safe top half group here

7-Victor J. Andrew: Know all about that finals surge

8-Edwardsville: A good bellwether for their BOA events to come

9-Romeoville: Amazing start to the season, can they keep it up?

10-Bloomington: Could see them even higher

11-Warren Township: Show maturation will determine how high they can go.

12-Batavia: It will be a long day but finals will be pure adrenaline

13-Collinsville: Three Metro East schools in finals? Let it be.

14-Galesburg: Doing all the right work and going to all the right shows to help them excel.

15-Eureka: Simply the class of 1A for this decade.

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Predictions week 1: Benefit of the Doubt edition!

I've tried to find videos for as many of these groups as I could, but some of my predictions (as is true with everything this time of year,) is also weighted towards reputation as much as current iterations.

 

Session A:

Locks: Morton (2A Champ)

Feel Strongly About Making Finals: Galesburg, (I know it was early, but 3.5 points from the next highest ISU at large is a pretty big gap.) IVC (1A Champ)

On The Bubble/Could make things Interesting: Eureka, East Peoria, Paris

 

Session B:

Locks: Marian (3A Champ)

4A Champ?: Romeoville, (My pick for 4A this week.)

Good Chance at Finals: Honestly, with so few bands in this session, they all have a chance, but I would guess Bloomington, Collinsville, and Washington (they sound good, clean drill if not insanely difficult, and I just can't believe that a band thats won 4A at U of I so often can't crack finals.)

 

Session C

Locks: OFallon, Normal, Prospect

Feel Good About: Plainfield directional schools, VJA, Edwardsville

Bubble Bands: Warren, Oswego

 

Early Finals top 5

1A/1B: OFallon and Morton. Much like SEC college football teams that don't play anyone until week 7, I'm not sure what we can guess about these 2 programs this early until we see them head to head. May depend on who has more on the field that week.

3. Marian. They sound goooooooooddd

4. Prospect, though I think the gap between 3 to 4 is a few points.

5. Edwardsville or VJ?

 

 

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My mid September ISMBC predictions!

(I will be doing class champions and finalists)

1A: IVC

2A: Morton

Session A finalist: Galesburg 

First out: Eureka

(Notes: Eureka is first up this year, could it negatively impact them? Who knows? For me this is IVC’s year for a chance back at finals. Be on the look out for Limestone, East Peoria)

3A: Marian Catholic

4A: Romeoville 

Session B finalists: Batavia, Collinsville, Bloomington 

First out: Washington Community 

(Notes: Washington and Lemont both have a nice chance to upset here, I believe they could enter one of these finals spots. I put Romeoville as 4A champion for now, we’ll see how they preform at NIU as Batavia will be there but in class 2A! This session will be a fun one)

5A: Prospect 

6A: O’Fallon Township 

Session C finalists: Normal, Plainfield North, Edwardsville, Victor J. Andrew, Oswego East

(Notes: The last finals spot is hard as of right now. Warren, Oswego East, Oswego, Plainfield Central. All very hard now, but by October 4th we could have a good idea of this last finals spot. But as of right now i’ll put Oswego East.)

 

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Hi everyone, first time posting but long time reader. I was wondering what the odds would be for ISU to consider flipping the script this year. This competition has always favored the bigger schools and there is a severe lack of balance this year. Why not use a percentage base system that would make the chances of making finals more even across the board? There are 16 bands going for 3 spots in the first block and 9 bands for 5 in the second block… How is this remotely fair? They should consider flipping these around for a year  and see what happens. The competition has never been higher in the smaller 1A and 2A bands than it has ever been. They already get the shaft at having to go on very early in the morning so why not throw them a bone this year and make it more even across the board? 
 

I know this won’t happen but we should take care of these smaller bands othepthey will consider not coming back. I know that there are bands that don’t come because most of the outcomes are set and that they don’t want to put their students through a grueling schedule. 

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2 hours ago, Anonymous Perc said:

Hi everyone, first time posting but long time reader. I was wondering what the odds would be for ISU to consider flipping the script this year. This competition has always favored the bigger schools and there is a severe lack of balance this year. Why not use a percentage base system that would make the chances of making finals more even across the board? There are 16 bands going for 3 spots in the first block and 9 bands for 5 in the second block… How is this remotely fair? They should consider flipping these around for a year  and see what happens. The competition has never been higher in the smaller 1A and 2A bands than it has ever been. They already get the shaft at having to go on very early in the morning so why not throw them a bone this year and make it more even across the board? 
 

I know this won’t happen but we should take care of these smaller bands othepthey will consider not coming back. I know that there are bands that don’t come because most of the outcomes are set and that they don’t want to put their students through a grueling schedule. 

I would MAYBE be down for a 4-4-7 split, but a 5-3-7 split when 9 out of the 12 bands in 3A-4A last year would have outscored a potential 5th finalist from 1A-2A (IVC)?    

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3 hours ago, Dan Balash said:

I would MAYBE be down for a 4-4-7 split, but a 5-3-7 split when 9 out of the 12 bands in 3A-4A last year would have outscored a potential 5th finalist from 1A-2A (IVC)?    

This would be better than the 3-5-7 that is going to be happening for this year. I just feel that the completely unbalanced entries this year should be taken into account...

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On 9/17/2025 at 2:58 PM, Dan Balash said:

Effingham:

https://youtu.be/Tn1cO6ZuZLM 

 

Edited by Bk5
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Week of 9/20-26 update:

1A        

1/2: Either IVC or Eureka: Not comfortable making a choice here

3-Could be anyone

2A        

Morton: No surprises so far

Galesburg: Still my bet to be in finals but work to do.

Limestone: No update or competitive performance until ISU

3A        

Marian Catholic: No surprises so far, 2.25 above Plainfield North at VJA

Bloomington: Will know more after DGS on 10/4

Lemont: No. 2 overall at Plainfield South, have them in.

4A        

Romeoville: Topped VJA in week 1, quite close to Plainfield North, nothing competitive until ISU

Batavia: Won class at NIU, within 1.5 of Romeoville, nothing competitive until ISU

Collinsville: Topped Edwardsville at MEMC, do not compete again until October 4 in Missouri, immediately follow Lemont and better performance gets in.

5A        

Prospect: Nothing competitive until ISU

Plainfield North: Margin at Prospect will be telling

Victor J. Andrew: Proximity to Marian will be telling

Edwardsville: Nothing competitive until ISU. Looks like Saturday before will be full work day with the designers. Not safely in. 

Plainfield Central: Will know more after DGS competition, looks like a work day this Saturday.

6A        

O'Fallon Township: No surprises but minimal competition

Normal: BOA feedback from 10/4 will be crucial, ideally they get it from two performances in Iowa

Warren Township: Within 2.5 of Plainfield North and 4.75 of Marian and more than 7 ahead of Plainfield South at VJA, will know more this weekend.

Oswego: Right on Romeoville's heels at NIU, test is if that matters out of 6A

Oswego East: Right on Romeoville's heels at VJA, SAA re: 6A

 

1-O'Fallon Township: Pre-season No. 1s sometimes have hiccup games.

2-Morton: It's a question of show status/completion on a comparative basis both up the ranks and down them.

3-Prospect: No competitive until ISU but I suspect the show is set to peak at BOA StL

4-Marian Catholic: A question of what shape the show is in when they start running the gauntlet

5-Normal: Could be higher, could be lower

6-Plainfield North: Not confident here

7-Victor J. Andrew: Will know much more after this Saturday

8-Warren Township: Based on VJA result.

9-Edwardsville: 5-9 is a scramble

10-Romeoville: No idea how complete this show is

11-Batavia: Pick-em with Romeoville

12-Bloomington: Limited info so far

13-Lemont: Based on score proximity to LW

14-Galesburg: Board darlings.

15-Eureka/IVC: No idea here

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Predictions 2 weeks out: All We know is What we Don't know edition.

 

More changes to come after next weekend.

Session A:

Locks: Morton (2A Champ), Galesburg (we're legally required to mentioned them once in every 3 posts this year. GC over a good-sounding Minooka band is a great sign.)

Feels Good About: IVC (1A Champ) over Eureka, but being at 2 different suburb sites next week we're really not gonna know until awards.

Puncher's Chance: East Peoria, Paris, maybe Limestone once we see their full show.

 

Session B:

Locks: Marian (3A Champ)

4A Champ?: Romeoville, (My pick for 4A this week.)

Pick em': Collinsville, Probably Bloomington, (we'll see how they do this weekend with a full show,) and Washington, with Batavia close behind (or slightly ahead?)

 

Session C : 

Locks: OFallon (6A Champ,) Normal, Prospect, Plainfield North, (tough to pick a 5A champ here. Though we don't know how the judges compared the Prospect and Plainfield North at KoC, I suspect Prospect was up a bit visually and North had better Music and MGE scores. Money on the line I'd go North, especially with them being late in the session.

Feel Good About: VJA, Edwardsville

Bubble Bands: Warren, Oswego, Plainfield Central

 

12 days out top 5

1A/1B: OFallon and Morton. I promise I'll choose one next week.

3. Marian

4. Plainfield North

5. Probably Prospect, but maybe Edwardsville or Normal with the right run on the right night.

 

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End of September ISMBC predictions!

Session A

1A: Illinois Valley Central

We’ll see after this weekend and how IVC performs in Romeoville. Eureka in Downers Grove. Those are my top picks for this class. University, Paris, and Macomb are all good choices for 3rd.

2A: Morton

A 2A champion lock. Galesburg in 2nd looking really good right now! For 3rd I have LaSalle-Peru or Limestone, East Peoria. 

Finalist: Galesburg

First out: Eureka

Session B 🔥🔥

3A: Marian Catholic 

Bloomington in 2nd, Lemont close behind as they look very clean visually. Lemont was 5 points behind LW at Plainfield South. Washington Community shouldn’t be discouraged, it’s gonna be really close.

4A: Romeoville 

Romeoville as class champion, beat VJA week 1, 4th overall at VJA as well as beating Batavia by 1.5 at NIU. I have Collinsville at 2nd with Batavia closely following in 3rd.

Finalists: Bloomington, Collinsville, Lemont 

First out: Batavia 

Session C

5A: Prospect 

Plainfield North in 2nd and Edwardsville for 3rd, North has been looking very nice lately, close behind in 4th and 5th will be VJA And Plainfield Central.

6A: O’Fallon Township

OT will be the likely class champion, pretty nice show. Normal OR Warren Township could get that 2nd place (MAYBE). Warren was pretty close to Plainfield North with a 3 point difference. We’ll see this weekend with Normal at BOA. Oswego and Oswego East fighting for 3rd

Finalists: Plainfield North, Normal, Warren Township, Edwardsville, VJA

First out: Oswego East

My TOTALLY WRONG finals placement 

1. O’Fallon Township

2. Morton

3. Prospect 

4. Plainfield North

5. Normal

6. Marian Catholic 

7. Edwardsville 

8. VJA

9. Romeoville 

10. Warren Township 

11. Bloomington 

12. Lemont 

13. Collinsville   

14.  Galesburg 

15. IVC

 

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Week of 9/28-10/3 update with bad guesses:

 

Note: We have quite a few groups who have gone to one competition and then hosted their own, which makes predictions quite difficult.

Prelims

1A        

1: IVC: Tough to unseat Eureka but appear on track 

2: Eureka: I give the edge to IVC because of scores to date and Eureka's performance time and slot. This weekend will tell us a lot.

3-Could be anyone

2A        

Morton: Normal was closer at IVC than at Washington. No idea if that is random or a trend.

Galesburg: One of the few to have competed three times so far. I'm 80 percent confident it is in.

Limestone: No update or competitive performance until ISU

3A        

Marian Catholic: No surprises so far, 2.25 above Plainfield North at VJA, 3.3 on VJA at Providence

Bloomington: Only a single competition to date, will know more after DGS on 10/4

Lemont: No. 2 overall at Plainfield South, will know more this weekend, have them in as things stand.

4A        

Romeoville: Topped VJA in week 1, quite close to Plainfield North, nothing competitive until ISU

Collinsville: Topped Edwardsville at MEMC, looking at the competition in Missouri this week, shot at winning the class.

BataviaWon class at NIU, within 1.5 of Romeoville, third at Prospect and close to Lake Park

Real mash-up among, Batavia, Collinsville, Lemont and Washington for the last slot. The 11:24-12:20 block will be amazing. Band so close to each other.

5A        

Prospect: Nothing competitive until ISU

Plainfield North: Margin at Prospect was more than 3 on Warren, could overtake Prospect

Edwardsville: Assuming the show is progressing after weird result at MEMC. 

Victor J. Andrew: Within 3.3 of Marian at Providence

Plainfield Central: Nearly 6 ahead of Warren and within 1 of VJA at Providence.

6A        

O'Fallon : No surprises but minimal competition

Normal: Absolute lock. BOA Iowa will tell us where they might compare to Prospect/PN/VJA/Marian

Warren Township: Clear as mud after last weekend; love the two competitions in one day thing, likely a better performance in the evening last week at Prospect over the afternoon performance at Providence; have them out based on the Providence results compared to VJA/PC/Marian.

Oswego: Right on Romeoville's heels at NIU, test is if that matters out of 6A

Oswego East: Right on Romeoville's heels at VJA, SAA re: 6A

 

Finals

1-O'Fallon: In 15 years, Morton has topped O'Fallon exactly once in later October. A 5-point gap at BOA St. Louis finals last year, 6.5 in 2023. Consensus top 5 pick for BOA StL. But O'Fallon's ISU history is spotty. If O'Fallon is anything but its best in finals, Morton will take it. Also, no idea what the status of the show is.

2-Morton: With an 8 am prelim slot and a bottom half finals slot, what a long day. But Morton knows how to do that and really cares about ISU. Having not seen either show, both status and nature of the show will determine whether the streak continues.

3-Marian Catholic: They have not had the same early season struggles they sometimes have. Possibly above Morton.

4-Prospect: Nothing since early season, limited to go on other than history

5-Plainfield North: Margin on Warren is why I have it here

6-Normal: Margin behind Morton has been both impressive and improving. Assuming a finals appearance at BOA Iowa, how it compares to Lindbergh/Belleville East/PC/NC will be telling

7-Edwardsville: Question is what shape the show is in with going to BOA GN, limited data having had only one competition

8-Victor J. Andrew: Margin at Providence is why I have it here

9-Plainfield Central: Based on Providence result; BOA Iowa and relation to Normal will be telling.

10-Romeoville: No idea how complete this show is

11-Collinsville: Missouri competition this week will be good practice for a prelim-finals day. Should it win finals, likely to move up.

12-Bloomington: DGS will give a better idea

13-Lemont: Margin at DGS will be telling

14-Galesburg: Amazing to see how serious the program is taking this. A returning finalist and BOA Indy trip shows it means business.

15-IVC: Will be great to seek it back in finals

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Here's my totally NOT satirical ISU Finals prediction:

1. O'Fallon/Galesburg TIE- O'Fallon deserves the win, but Galesburg's clarinet/trombone duet brings them the GE win, O'Fallon takes Music and Visual, rounding out in a tie.

3. Eureka- Full confidence they bring in the voiceovers and choreography needed to convey their show message. Their score skyrockets, winning them 3rd. 

4. Victor J. Andrew- It's an odd year, meaning they will place at lowest 5th. 

5. Washington- Morton isn't the only Tazewell county band that packs a punch. 

6. Normal- They want revenge on Morton, so the get it.

7. Plainfield North- I wish they were higher, but I can't justify it on this list. They take out Prospect for 5A champion.

8. Prospect- Battle of the blue and white uniforms for this spot. The OGs take it.

9. Morton- The other blue and white uniforms. I need to apologize to my cousin in their gaurd... 

10. Warren Township- Blue and white block!

11. Romeoville- They're cool, they win 4A.

12. Collinsville- They beat Batavia for Finals because purple is the cooler uniform color.

13. Edwardsville- I guess I'll trust the MEMC scores...

14. Bloomington- Nothing against them, I'm just not the biggest fan of their show theme this year. 

15. Marian Catholic- My friend is obsessed with them. This would keep him quiet. 

Hopefully that wasn't too idiotic, I just wanted to have a little fun. I'll share my actual predictions next week.

 

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There have been SOME people making lists that I can't quite wrap my head around. I feel this forum needs a REAL ISU predictions list

1. Marion Catholic - It's quite simple, the best band in Illinois by far. Holding the most BOA grand champion wins of any band in the country, tied for first with the most ISU finals wins as well as being undefeated in class for 35 years. Truly the peak of marching band

 

2. O'Fallon I guess - they're pretty big or something 

 

3 John Hersey - I know what you're thinking, "hey man, John hersey isn't gonna be at isu this year!" Well to you I say have some faith. I mean have you heard their 2023 show? CLEARLY Dan Balash is lying about John hersey because he fears how good they are

 

4 Prospect - Prospect, who doesn't like prospect? A fine choice for a 4th place spot

 

5. El paso Gridley - THEY'RE PLAYING THE FIREBIRD are you kidding me? Best classical pice to ever be adapted into marching band it and will no doubt out them at the top, PLUS they have 2 whole cities, El Paso AND Gridley

 

6 Normal - seems like a pretty "normal" spot here 

 

7. Washington - a new addition to ISU this year same as O'Fallon. We love to see more representation from the 309 in the form a big schools, ouls that tenor feature is pretty sick

8. Collinsville - they're basically O'Fallon's little brother, but they have some good stuff this year 

9. Romeoville - a perfect band to take a filler spot

10. Warren township - while they had a fantastic run last year, we'll just see how far they make it this time around

11. Galesburg - Now, I like Galesburg but it seems to me the ISU judges do not. So given their intense hatred I have to put Galesburg pretty low, another thing to bite it after Galesburg I geuss you could say A LITTLE bias comes in to okay with the ranking

12 VJA - I don't really like this band no offense to the amazing performers

13 - Edwardsville - I'm mad they didn't show up last year :(

14 Lockport,.I know I know, once again you're telling me Lockport isn't going to ISU, but I don't like them and want them to be 14th.

15. Morton - Now SURELY you're asking yourself how Morton could possibly be at the bottom, but here's the thing. Its a trick. The judges announce Morton in 15th the entire crowd is stunned nobody can believe it. But then at the very end the Morton drum majors get on their props and "flip" revealing that the list was flipped, and THEY were at the top, the stadium goes wild, popcorn flies, Hancock stadium breaks under max capacity, the moon explodes, truley EPIC. (Marion Catholic still wins though don't ask me how)

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As many of us have been going through *yet* another heat wave in this "never-ending August", I thought it would be worth reflecting on the last 25+ years of weather at ISU. Looking at the 10-day forecast, it looks like it will definitely be one of the warmer years this year. As a member of a 1A band & having marched two of the coldest years on this list - I'm certainly jealous! 

YEAR / DATE / ~7 AM / HIGH / DIFF

2008    10/11    60    80    20
1997    10/11    55    80    25
2022    10/22    53    80    27
2017    10/14    63    78    15
2013    10/11    59    78    19
2000    10/14    63    77    14
2007    10/20    46    77    31
2005    10/15    52    70    18
2001    10/20    45    70    25
2003    10/23    41    70    29
2010    10/23    61    69    8
2023    10/21    47    69    22
2019    10/19    47    69    22
2024    10/19    40    65    25
2006    10/21    46    64    18
1998    10/24    38    64    26
2016    10/22    43    62    19
2018    10/18    36    59    23
2014    10/12    44    57    13
2011    10/29    36    56    20
2002    10/26    45    55    10
2021    10/23    42    54    12
2009    10/24    40    54    14
2015    10/17    33    53    20
2004    10/16    41    48    7
1999    10/23    34    48    14
2012    10/27    31    46    15

Besides student & spectator safety and logisitics, something that I don't think gets discussed enough in regards to the pros/cons of swapping class performance times besides admissions or crowd size is the impact of temperature on pitch and overall quality of the performance. Below a certain temperature mouthpieces, reeds, pitch, and even choreo is just tougher to execute, no matter the skill level or complexity of show design.

Sure things cool down going into finals, but take a look at a year like 2007 where IVC goes on at 7:42 AM and plays again in Finals, thats a nearly 30 degree temperature swing compared to bands playing in 5A or 6A. Another neat takeaway is that while the earlier dates on this list are warmer, its not always a garunteed. 2004, 2015, 2014 were relatively earlier/in the middle of October but still saw temp's in the 40's & 50's. 

Even when you just look at Class 1A & 2A, this time of day sees the largest temperature swing of the day between 7 AM - 11 AM, with temperatures usually peaking around 2-3 PM. Add on the 3-5 AM wake up calls & then the weather, that's a LONG day for small schools by the time you make finals. Of course, there's no perfect answer, but it's always interesting to look through the stats. 

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5 hours ago, BRMMSax20 said:

7 AM / HIGH / DIFF

2008    10/11    60    80    20
1997    10/11    55    80    25
2022    10/22    53    80    27
2017    10/14    63    78    15
2013    10/11    59    78    19

I'm a little concerned that 10/11 has 3 of the top 5 highs...

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5 hours ago, BRMMSax20 said:

2018    10/18    36    59    23

I was in the stands for this one. Early session was mid-50s and so windy, for at least some of the classes, they went "no props on the field and no throws by guards." And for finals, I remember being numb in the stands and just wanting it all to end.  The forecast was way off for the day and almost nobody was prepared for 36 degrees. The kids were just monsters to get through the night. 

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10 hours ago, Chrisinstl said:

I was in the stands for this one. Early session was mid-50s and so windy, for at least some of the classes, they went "no props on the field and no throws by guards." And for finals, I remember being numb in the stands and just wanting it all to end.  The forecast was way off for the day and almost nobody was prepared for 36 degrees. The kids were just monsters to get through the night. 

I was there that year as well. Frigid in the stands, people sitting are their hands just to stay warm. That night and the 2016 "We're Kinda Watching the Bands But We're Also Watching the Cubs Game as they Try to Clinch" Finals are 2 of the least audience-engaged finals I can remember in the last 25 years.

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