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BOA Grand National Predictions

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So, I decided to crunch some numbers for the upcoming Grand Nationals in Indianapolis.  I am not saying this is an exact science but I’m only using numbers from BOA Regionals and Super Regionals finals to derive my predictions.  I do realize that the scores may vary depending upon the competitions but feel I needed a basis for my predictions.  The numbers from BOA competitions this year look at follows (Band in finals and their best score per all BOA finals competitions in 2016):

Band                                                      Best

Avon H.S., IN                                         94.15

Carmel H.S., IN                                      93.75

Tarpon Springs H.S., FL                        91.75

Leander H.S., TX                                   90.85

Wando H.S., SC                                     90.6

Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX            89.7

Homestead H.S., IN                                89.45

Marian Catholic H.S., IL                          89.35

Owasso H.S., OK                                   89

Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN                      88.95

Bellevue West H.S., NE                         88.4

Ronald Reagan H.S., TX                       88.25

Union H.S., OK                                      88.2

Cedar Park H.S., TX                             87.65

O'Fallon Township H.S., IL                    87.35

Castle H.S., IN                                       87.3

Centerville H.S., OH                              87.3

North Hardin H.S., KY                           86.85

Vista Murrieta H.S., CA                        86.8

William Mason H.S., OH                       86.55

Center Grove H.S., IN                          86.2

Lawrence Township, IN                        85.5

Ayala H.S., CA                                    85.25

Franklin H.S., TN                                 84.55

James Bowie H.S.. TX                         82.45

James F. Byrnes H.S., SC                    81.4

Plymouth-Canton Educational Park, MI   80.9

Ben Davis H.S., IN                                80.7

Clovis West H.S., CA                            80.55

Rockford H.S., MI                                 80.2

Panther Creek H.S., NC                       79.9

Fort Mill H.S., SC                                  79.75

Nation Ford H.S., SC                            77.7

 

So, just crunching numbers, the above 33 bands are my semi-finalists plus your smaller class champions if they do not make the cut.  My predictions for finals this year are as follows:

 

Top 8

Avon, IN; Carmel, IN; Tarpon Springs, FL; Leander H.S., TX; Wando H.S., SC; Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX; Homestead H.S., IN; Marian Catholic H.S., IL               

         

Next 4

Owasso H.S., OK; Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN; Ronald Reagan H.S., TX; Union H.S., OK  

                         

On The Bubble

Bellevue West H.S., NE; Cedar Park H.S., TX; O'Fallon Township H.S., IL; Castle H.S., IN                    

 

Please weigh in and provide your predictions!                 

 

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Your semifinalists:

Homestead, IN

Cedar Park, TX

Owasso, OK

Dobyns-Bennett, TN

Tarpon Springs, FL

Carmel, IN

Leander, TX

Ronald Reagan, TX

Vista Murrieta, CA

Claudia Taylor Johnson, TX

Avon, IN

Castle, IN

North Hardin, KY

Marian Catholic

William Mason, OH

Center Grove, IN

James Bowie, TX

Ayala, CA

Bellevue West, NE

Reeths-Puffer, MI

Lawrence Township, IN

Columbus North, IN

Adair County, KY

Fort Mill, SC

Franklin, TN

Wando, SC

James F. Byrnes, SC

Plymouth-Canton Educational Park, MI

Archbishop Alter, OH

O'Fallon Township

Lockport Township

Clovis West, CA

Union, OK

Milton-Union, OH

Green Hope, NC

Williamstown, KY

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Schedule:

 

6:45 a.m. – North Hardin H.S., KY
7:00 a.m. – Adair County H.S., KY
7:15 a.m. – Williamstown H.S., KY
7:30 a.m. – Archbishop Alter H.S., OH
7:45 a.m. – Milton-Union H.S., OH
8:00 a.m. – Reeths-Puffer H.S., MI
8:15 a.m. – Lockport Township H.S., IL
8:30 a.m. – Ayala H.S., CA
8:45 a.m. – Green Hope H.S., NC
9:00 a.m. – O'Fallon Township H.S., IL
9:15 a.m. – Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
9:30 a.m. – James F. Byrnes H.S., SC
9:45 a.m. – Wando H.S., SC
10:00 a.m. – Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
10:15 a.m. – Marian Catholic H.S., IL
10:30 a.m. – Avon H.S., IN
BREAK
11:15 a.m. – Owasso H.S., OK
11:30 a.m. – Castle H.S., IN
11:45 a.m. – William Mason H.S., OH
12:00 p.m. – Union H.S., OK
12:15 p.m. – Bellevue West H.S., NE
12:30 p.m. – Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
12:45 p.m. – Leander H.S., TX
1:00 p.m. – Franklin H.S., TN
1:15 p.m. – Cedar Park H.S., TX
1:30 p.m. – Center Grove H.S., IN
BREAK

2:15 p.m. – Carmel H.S., IN
2:30 p.m. – Plymouth-Canton Educational Park, MI
2:45 p.m. – Homestead H.S., IN
3:00 p.m. – Lawrence Township H.S., IN
3:15 p.m. – Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
3:30 p.m. – Vista Murrieta H.S., CA
3:45 p.m. – James Bowie H.S., TX
4:00 p.m. – Fort Mill H.S., SC
4:15 p.m. – Clovis West H.S., CA
4:30 p.m. – Columbus North H.S., IN
4:45 p.m. – EXHIBITION: The Ohio State University Marching Band

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Semi Finals results:

 

Class A:

1) Adair County

2) Williamstown

3) Archbishop Alter

Music: Adair County
Visual: Adair County
GE: Adair County

 

Class AA:

1) Tarpon Springs

2) Marian Catholic

3) North Hardin

Music: Tarpon Springs
Visual: Tarpon Springs
GE: Tarpon Springs

 

Class AAA:

1) Leander
2) Cedar Park
3) Castle
Music: Leander
Visual: Leander
GE: Cedar Park/Leander

 

Class AAAA:

1) Avon
2) Carmel
3) William Mason
Music: Avon
Visual: William Mason
GE: Avon

 

Finalists:

Carmel

Leander
Avon
Claudia Taylor Johnson
Cedar Park
Tarpon Springs
Marian Catholic
Homestead
Wando
William Mason
Ronald Reagan
Dobyns-Bennett
Castle 

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Schedule:

 

7:45 PM - Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
8:00 PM - Wando H.S., SC
8:15 PM - Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
8:30 PM - Castle H.S., IN
8:45 PM - Dobyns-Bennett H.S., TN
9:00 PM - Marian Catholic H.S., IL
9:15 PM - Homestead H.S., IN
9:30 PM - Cedar Park H.S., TX
9:45 PM - Leander H.S., TX
10:00 PM - Carmel H.S., IN
10:15 PM - Tarpon Springs H.S., FL
10:30 PM - Avon H.S., IN
10:45 PM- William Mason H.S., OH
11:00 PM - CLASS EXHIBITION: Adair County H.S., KY

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It's been awhile since Dobyns-Bennett made finals, I don't think Castle has ever been, have they? Also, when is the last time Ayala attended GN that they missed finals?

 

Neither Dobyns-Bennett nor Castle have ever made finals.  Ayala's been 4 times prior, placing 12th in 2004, 14th in 2007, 18th in 2010 and 12th in 2013.

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Neither Dobyns-Bennett nor Castle have ever made finals.  Ayala's been 4 times prior, placing 12th in 2004, 14th in 2007, 18th in 2010 and 12th in 2013.

 

 Ah, I though Ayala made it each time, apparently just a little out.

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Finals results:

 

1) 97.45 - Carmel, IN*

2) 97.45 - Avon, IN

3) 96.55 - William Mason, OH

4) 95.70 - Tarpon Springs, FL

5) 95.30 - Cedar Park, TX

6) 94.65 - Leander, TX

7) 91.85 - Ronald Reagan, TX

8) 91.50 - Wando, SC

9) 91.30 - Claudia Taylor Johnson, TX

10) 91.05 - Castle, IN

11) 91.00 - Homestead, IN

12) 90.05 - Marian Catholic

13) 89.45 - Dobyns-Bennett, TN

 

Music: Avon, IN
Visual: Avon, IN
GE: Carmel, IN

 

*Ties are broken by Overall General Effect score.

 

Band invited to the 2018 Rose Parade: Ronald Reagan, TX

Al Castronovo E'Spirit de Corps Award: Vista Murrieta, CA

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Finals results:

 

1) 97.45 -  Carmel, IN

2) 97.45 - Avon, IN

3) 96.55 - William Mason, OH

4) 95.70 - Tarpon Springs, FL

5) 95.30 - Cedar Park, TX

6) 94.65 - Leander, TX

7) 91.85 - Ronald Reagan, TX

8) 91.50 - Wando, SC

9) 91.30 - Claudia Taylor Johnson, TX

10) 91.05 - Castle, IN

11) 91.00 - Homestead, IN

12) 90.05 - Marian Catholic

13) 89.45 - Dobyns-Bennett, TN

 

Music: Avon, IN

Visual: Avon, IN

GE: Carmel, IN

 

Band invited to the 2018 Rose Parade: Ronald Reagan, TX

Al Castronovo E'Spirit de Corps Award: Vista Murrieta, CA

 

Wow... on multiple levels. Having watched all of those performances, those judges had a heck of a time.

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Horrible news from Castle today.

CASTLE BAND FAMILY

With incredibly heavy hearts, it saddens us to confirm that the Rinehart family and the Castle Band Family suffered a tragedy on the way home from Indianapolis. David Rinehart, his mother, and Sophie Rinehart were taken from our world in a car accident. Josie is in the hospital in Bloomington.

More information will follow throughout the day as we are communicating with the principals, counselors and the Warrick County School people that work on situations like this.

Monday beginning of school - There will be counselors who specialize in this type of grief to meet with students.

Please be respectful to their family in the upcoming days through social media posts.

Please hug, cry, laugh, sing, and pray for each other today..and the next day...and every day.

Mr. Dean and Mr. Eifler

 

 

More info: http://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2016/11/13/crossroads-pastor-castle-student-killed-car-accident/93767496/

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Thursday scores:

 

Class A:

  1. 83.25 Adair County, KY
  2. 71.35 Archbishop Alter, OH
  3. 67.10 Crestwood, OH
  4. 65.05 Carroll, OH
  5. 64.00 Norton, OH
  6. 60.20 Triton Central, IN
  7. 57.05 Logan Elm, OH
  8. 52.95 Bishop Fenwick, OH
  9. 51.95 Carlisle, OH
  10. 51.30 Ada, OH
  11. 48.05 Southwestern, IN

Class AA:

  1. 82.60 Reeths-Puffer, MI
  2. 82.55 North Hardin, KY
  3. 82.05 Bassett, VA
  4. 81.35 Morton
  5. 76.15 Lake Hamilton, AR
  6. 76.00 Jenison, MI
  7. 75.75 Bellbrook, OH
  8. 70.45 Cape Fear, NC
  9. 69.95 Rockwood Summit, MO
  10. 66.75 Walter E. Stebbins, OH
  11. 65.80 Northmont, OH
  12. 60.90 Tippecanoe, OH
  13. 58.30 Piqua, OH
  14. 48.80 Western Brown, OH

 

Class AAA:

  1. 90.60 Castle, IN
  2. 90.50 Dobyns-Bennett, TN
  3. 88.70 Franklin, TN
  4. 85.00 Clovis West, CA
  5. 84.85 Columbus North, IN
  6. 84.45 Fort Mill, SC
  7. 83.40 Lafayette, LA
  8. 77.80 Central Hardin, KY
  9. 76.15 Miamisburg, OH

 

Class AAAA:

  1. 95.55 Carmel, IN
  2. 94.75 Avon, IN
  3. 94.25 William Mason, OH
  4. 90.75 Homestead, IN
  5. 90.40 Union, OK
  6. 89.90 Center Grove, IN
  7. 88.75 Lawrence Township, IN
  8. 87.60 James F. Byrnes, SC
  9. 84.80 Lockport Township
  10. 84.30 Green Hope, NC
  11. 81.35 Ben Davis, IN
  12. 80.55 Lincoln-Way
  13. 75.80 Westlake, UT
  14. 73.05 Boiling Springs, SC
  15. 72.60 Lake Park
  16. 66.45 Franklin Central, IN

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Friday Scores:

 

1A:

  1. 70.90 Williamstown, KY
  2. 67.80 Milton-Union, OH
  3. 66.10 Whitesboro, TX
  4. 65.05 LaSalle, OH
  5. 64.00 Indian Hill, OH
  6. 60.95 Licking Valley, OH
  7. 60.90 Monrovia, IN
  8. 60.60 Murphysboro
  9. 60.55 South Point, OH
  10. 56.15 East Clinton, OH
  11. 52.90 Herscher

 

Class AA:

  1. 94.80 Tarpon Springs, FL
  2. 89.65 Marian Catholic
  3. 76.65 Campbell County, KY
  4. 75.80 Paragould, AR
  5. 75.30 Father Ryan, TN
  6. 71.90 Nordonia, OH
  7. 71.80 Limestone Community
  8. 70.80 Lakeland, MI
  9. 68.80 New Philadelphia, OH
  10. 68.60 Davenport Central, IA
  11. 65.50 Fairborn, OH

 

Class AAA:

  1. 93.30 Leander, TX
  2. 91.65 Cedar Park, TX
  3. 88.70 Bellevue West, NE
  4. 83.55 Nation Ford, SC
  5. 83.50 Walled Lake Central, MI
  6. 81.35 Carroll, IN
  7. 74.90 Hardin Valley Academy, TN
  8. 73.65 Southmoore, OK
  9. 71.15 Urbana, MD
  10. 70.60 Springboro, OH
  11. 66.75 Colerain, OH

Class AAAA:

  1. 92.50 Wando, SC
  2. 91.75 Claudia Taylor Johnson, TX
  3. 89.75 Ronald Reagan, TX
  4. 88.95 Vista Murrieta, CA
  5. 87.95 Owasso, OK
  6. 86.50 Plymouth-Canton Educational Park, MI
  7. 86.10 Ayala, CA
  8. 86.05 James Bowie, TX
  9. 85.75 O'Fallon Township
  10. 84.10 Rockford, MI
  11. 83.85 Centerville, OH
  12. 83.10 Bentonville, AR
  13. 82.40 Jenks, OK
  14. 81.95 Panther Creek, NC
  15. 81.55 Lake Central, IN
  16. 81.15 Mustang, OK
  17. 74.75 Lake Orion, MI

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Semifinals:

 

  1. 96.55 Avon, IN (Music, GE)
  2. 95.90 Carmel, IN
  3. 95.90 Tarpon Springs, FL (Music, Visual, GE)
  4. 95.90 William Mason, OH (Visual)
  5. 93.80 Leander, TX (Music, Visual, GE (tie))
  6. 92.45 Cedar Park, TX (GE (tie))
  7. 92.30 Ronald Reagan, TX
  8. 91.70 Claudia Taylor Johnson, SC
  9. 91.20 Wando, SC
  10. 89.95 Castle, IN
  11. 89.75 Marian Catholic
  12. 88.30 Dobyns-Bennett, TN
  13. 88.30 Homestead, IN
  14. 88.00 Vista Murrieta, CA
  15. 87.85 Owasso, OK
  16. 87.65 Union, OK
  17. 87.25 Franklin, TN
  18. 86.65 James Bowie, TX
  19. 85.90 Ayala, CA
  20. 85.70 Lawrence Township, IN
  21. 85.55 Plymouth-Canton Educational Park, MI
  22. 85.20 O'Fallon Township
  23. 83.35 James F. Byrnes, SC
  24. 81.80 North Hardin, KY
  25. 81.80 Lockport Township
  26. 81.60 Columbus North, IN
  27. 81.00 Bellevue West, NE
  28. 80.55 Reeths-Puffer, MI
  29. 79.80 Fort Mill, SC
  30. 79.65 Clovis West, CA
  31. 79.60 Green Hope, NC
  32. 77.15 Adair County, KY (Music, Visual, GE)
  33. 74.10 Willamstown, KY
  34. 73.20 Archbishop Alter, OH
  35. 72.30 Milton-Union, OH

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